81% Growth In Tallahassee Home Sales

by Joe Manausa on February 1, 2010

December proved to be a big month for the Tallahassee real estate market. Home sales surged 81% compared to December of 2008, with 129 new units and 292 existing homes sold. Condos and townhouses were up strongly, with a developer liquidation sale great enhancing their numbers. But single family detached home sales were up 50% on their own, meaning the entire market benefited from increased unit sales.

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Year Over Year Homes Sales Gain For Third Consecutive Month

After recording a record 39 straight months of declines, the Tallahassee housing market is enjoying its third consecutive month of gains that started in October of last year. And based upon activity that I am seeing in our office, you can rest assured that the next two months (and most likely longer) will see gains as well.

In the real estate graph below, each month displays a vertical bar representing the change in home sales from the same month during the prior year. For example, December of 2009 was 81% better than December 2008, so we see a positive vertical bar rising from the scale.

[click to view graph of year over year home sales]

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See the “Mother Of All Housing Reports”

by Joe Manausa on January 18, 2010

I have put together the “mother of all housing reports” in an effort to show our readers what is available on a regular basis at the Tallahassee Housing Reports page on our new web site. This does not even include all of the charts and graphs that we provide about foreclosures (on the Tallahassee Foreclosures page), nor does it include all of the chart and graphs that we provide about Tallahassee neighborhoods.

Subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate BlogFYI: You can subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog and have it delivered to your email box each time it is published. Just click on the button in the top right of the header any time you want. It only takes a few seconds and then you’ll receive the most up to date Tallahassee real estate information as it is written.

Monthly Market Reports With Real Estate Graphs

These are the monthly reports that give our readers an idea of the changing trends in the Tallahassee housing market. The first seven graphs can be found in our twice-weekly housing report, while the rest are produced on a monthly basis.

If you hover your mouse over each real estate graph, it will give a brief description of what the graph covers. Clicking on the graph will open a new window with a detailed explanation and an enlarged graph (the first 7 graphs are on the same page, all the others are on individual pages). Let me know what you think with a comment following the blog. Enjoy!

Historic Daily Sales Pending Home Sales Daily Home Sales

Short Term Inventory Trends Listings That Failed To Sell 4 Key Market Trends



Home Sales Success Trends Home Sales Trends. Avg Residential Property Prices



Single Family Detached Trend Average Real Estate Price Trends Lot Sales TrendsResidential Land Sales In Tallahassee


Year/Year Home Sales TrendYear over Year Home Sales Activity ComparisonHow Are Home Sales Compared To Past Years In Tallahassee New Home Construction RatiosPermits v. Sales



New Home Construction TrendsHousing Construction Trends Graph Condo And Townhouse SalesCondominiums And Townhomes Sold In Tallahassee New Townhouse And CondoNew Condo and Townhouse Construction Trends In Tallahassee



New and Existing SFD HomesSFD Home Sales In Tallahassee Home Sales By TypeGraph of home sales by type Supply in the Tallahassee MLS



Want more? Check out all the reports on the Tallahassee Real Estate Web Site!



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Home Sales Trending Up

by Joe Manausa on January 3, 2010

Since we have entered a new year (and a new decade), it’s time to take a look at the state of the Tallahassee housing market as it stands right now. I think the mode for 2010 will be “Improvement” as many of our real estate trends are moving upwards.

The key for 2010 is finding out whether the improvements that we saw at the end of 2009 were (as one reader put it) a “dead cat bounce,” or if in fact the recovery cycle has begun. 2010 will provide an answer to that question. So, what do our current real estate trend reports show …

Home Sales Success Rates On The Rise

One exciting trend is that our sales success trend (the total number of homes sold divided by the total number of homes listed, over the past 365 days) is rising! When we look at the real estate graph below, we see that the one year trend is over 42%, which is the highest point on the graph.

Real Estate Graph of Home Sales Success In Tallahassee

[click to see 4 more color graphs of housing trends]

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Killearn Lakes Unit 3 Home Sales Down

by Joe Manausa on November 13, 2009

home for sale in 7 Oaks in Tallahassee FloridaHome sales in 7 Oaks (Killearn Lakes Unit 3) continue their steady decline from the height of the boom market several years ago. Consisting of 3 and 4 bedroom, single-family detached homes, Seven Oaks has been a very popular family neighborhood in Killearn Lakes for the past 20 years.

This seems to be a fairly consistent theme as we perform more of our Tallahassee Neighborhood Reports, both average home prices dropping as well as signs of roughly 20% depreciation in home values since the top of the market.

Killearn Lakes Unit 3 Home Sales Decline 71%

More and more, we see the number of homes sold in a Tallahassee Subdivision down well over 60%, and in the case of Seven Oaks, home sales are down 71% since the peak of the market. With less than 2 homes sold each month (current trend), it sure is a far cry from when more than 5 homes per month were selling at the beginning of 2007.

What is the average price of a home in 7 Oaks in Tallahassee Florida

Home Values Decline 21% In Seven Oaks

The level of real estate depreciation in 7 Oaks is consistent with the rest of Killearn Lakes in Tallahassee, but it sure is a problem for those of us who live out there. If somebody purchased a home (or refinanced one) at the height of the market in March of 2007, we might have a long way to go before we can sell it and have any equity in the home.

Right now, home values in Killearn Lakes Unit 3 are similar to how they were valued in the beginning of 2004 (meaning most likely you need to have purchased prior to 2004 to have any equity).

What is the average price per square foot of a home in 7 Oaks in Tallahassee Florida

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Recent Home Sales In Killearn Lakes Unit 3

[click to see previous 100 home sales in 7 Oaks]


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Home Sales Grow Again

by Joe Manausa on November 10, 2009

Tallahassee Celebrates Good News In The Housing MarketSomething positive occurred in the Tallahassee real estate market during the month of October. It was long awaited, yet one month prior to my prediction made earlier this year, so I am very excited to report REAL PROOF of a housing market improvement in Tallahassee.

We finally put a halt to a run of year over year declines in home sales! Previously, the Tallahassee housing market experienced a 39 month run, from July 2006 through September 2009, of year over year home sales declines! October records show more home sales this year than October of last year (242 total home sales this year versus 241 home sales last year).

That’s right, we improved by 1 sale during this October versus last October. As paltry as that sounds, it is something the Tallahassee housing market has not experienced since June of 2006! As small as it is, we have just seen an improvement.

Year Over Year Home Sales Gain In Tallahassee

The real estate graph below shows a year-over-year comparison of Tallahassee home sales. Each month is compared with the same month from the year prior, and the percentage gain (or percentage loss) is recorded for each month. All single family detached homes, condominiums, and town houses sold and recorded in Leon County (arms length sales only) were used for this report.

[click here to see color graph of home sales]

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Local Inventor Hits National Markets

by Joe Manausa on November 9, 2009

Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter CoverYou always hear the expression that real estate is local, and there certainly is a whole lot of truth to that. Certainly, national interest rates and Obama stimulus money have an affect on a local market, but the reality is that local job growth and local population growth have a whole lot more to do with the housing market than outside influencers.

Today, I want to mention two people who are very local to Tallahassee  and are starting to make an impact, both in our local market, as well as upon the national market. I am thinking that the work they are doing could have a wonderful affect on our local job growth and population growth.

I have always admired people who could create something from scratch. “Big ideas” people are a dime a dozen, but people who can bring a thought to a tangible reality have always been able to impress me.

Local Inventor Hits National Markets

The first person that I will mention today is a local inventor, Rod Presnell, who has invented a fish-landing net like no other that I have seen. I grew up in Tallahassee, and fishing has been something that I have enjoyed since before I can remember.

My brothers and I used to walk to Lake Ella with worms and bread and fish for bluegills when we were really young. Then, when Mike hit driving age, we would throw the rods and nets in the back seat of his car and throw the canoe (aptly named Mastercharge) on the roof of the car and head for Lake Jackson.

Invariably, all of that fishing equipment would find its way together and a resulting entanglement with the fishing net would result in a 10 minute delay to our fishing trip. If only somebody could have invented a tangle-free net ….

The Bass Lasso was invented by Rod Presnell for this very reason. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the Best New Fishing Product of the Year at the Fishing & Boat Show in Jacksonville this past weekend. Here is a video showing how his invention works.

Remember, Rod is a local Tallahassee guy, so give him some support. Visit a web site that shows different videos about the Bass Lasso as well as tells the story of why and how he invented the net. Please give some written feedback on his site so when the rest of the world finds him, they know that he has great local support!

Local Eating Has Never Been Better

One Fresh Stir Fry LogoAnother local “inventor” created the most unique dining experience that I have ever seen. It combines speedy service (not quite “fast food”) with stir-fry “made to order,” to deliver a great meal for under $10. Bill Poole created One Fresh Stir Fry right here in Tallahassee, and now has three great locations in which you will frequently find me dining.

Why am I so impressed with Billy Poole’s creation? Because I would never in a million years thought of making a fast-food stir-fry restaurant. He not only did it, but he did it with the freshest tasting food I’ve ever had. And why mention this here? ….

Because you are going to see this local guy hit the national markets when his franchise takes hold. All it takes is the first one outside of Tallahassee, and I think this is going to be hot. 1 Fresh Stir Fry has done very well in Tallahassee because of it’s simple operating premise “Because a meal is fast doesn’t mean it has to suck. And … just because a meal is fast doesn’t mean you couldn’t get it made to order the way you like it.

If you have not tried One Fresh yet (here’s a copy of the menu), I encourage to support this local “inventor.” If you like fresh food, without having to wait a long time to be served, I think you will be impressed with this restaurant. If you think you might like to try your hand at owning a restaurant, I cannot imagine a more exciting and excitable guy to work with than Billy Poole. You can read more about franchise opportunities at One Fresh Stir Fry on his Tallahassee web site.

Stimulate The Tallahassee Economy

All of us can have a positive effect on the Tallahassee real estate market. Choose local when possible (like eating at One Fresh Stir Fry or fishing with The Bass Lasso.) As our economy grows and our population grows, so too shall our local real estate market.

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Recent Home Sales In Killearn Lakes Unit 1

by Joe Manausa on November 5, 2009

Tallahassee Neighborhood Home Sales ReportThe Tallahassee Real Estate Blog regularly reviews Tallahassee neighborhoods in order to get a feel for what home values are doing. You can click any one of the links in the right side bar (see pictured on the right) for a list of any blogs when the corresponding neighborhood in Tallahassee is mentioned.

When we last looked in on Killearn Lakes Unit 1, we noted that the home prices were holding fairly steady, though values (when looked at price per square foot) were falling. This told us that people who were buying a home in Killearn Lakes Unit 1 were buying larger homes, making the market look stronger than it appeared in standardized real estate reports.

Killearn Lakes (Unit1) Home Values

Home values continue to fall in Killearn Lakes (Unit 1). The best way to track real estate appreciation (or real estate depreciation) across a single Tallahassee subdivision is to track resale price per square foot data on a one-year trend.

The following real estate graph shows that the average number of homes selling in Killearn Lakes (Unit 1) each month has dropped below 2 per month (from a peak of nearly 5 home sales each month), and the average price per square foot of a home has dropped below $120 per square foot.

Killearn Lakes Home Sales Report Price Per Square Foot Real Estate Graph

Remember, using the average price per square foot is an excellent way to track area home valuations over time, but it by no means is an accurate way to determine a home’s value. Killearn Lakes (Unit 1) features many different types of homes sitting on different types of home sites.

Some homes in Killearn Lakes (Unit 1) are on water front lots, while others are on the interior. Some have additional features such as swimming pools and multi-car garages. An individual home valuation must consider all of the differences, not just heated and cooled square feet.

Average Home Prices In Killearn Lakes (Unit 1)

Many real estate reports feature average home prices in an area. This is good to know if you are considering buying a home in an area such as Killearn Lakes (Unit 1), but it by no means an accurate depiction of true real estate depreciation (or appreciation).

Killearn Lakes Home Sales Report Average Home Price Real Estate Graph

The real estate graph above shows that the average home price in Killearn Lakes (Unit 1) did not start dropping until late in 2008, well more than a year after the rest of the Tallahassee real estate market. What we found in our previous analysis of Killearn Lakes Unit 1 was that buyers were selecting the larger homes when buying in this neighborhood.

This meant average home prices looked to be staying the same, while our average price per square foot report showed that homes in Killearn Lakes (Unit 1) were depreciating at a rate consistent with the rest of the Tallahassee housing market.

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Recent Home Sales In Killearn Lakes (Unit 1)


[click to see list of recent home sales in Killearn Lakes (Unit 1) …]

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Tallahassee’s Sable Chase Neighborhood

by Joe Manausa on November 3, 2009

Like many people who live in Killearn Lakes Plantation, I’ve discovered a great little neighborhood (56 homes) that joins Killearn Lakes to Bannerman Road. It’s called Sable Chase and it is relatively new, with new home sales that started just five years ago.

Unlike some of the larger subdivisions in Tallahassee for which we report, Sable Chase has fewer than 1 home sold each month, so the trends are not as clear to see. The key to trend reporting is to have enough sales (liquidity) that you can draw clear conclusions from the data. With fewer than 1 sale per month, we see quite a bit of “noise” in the data.

Sable Chase Tallahassee Home Sales Graph

In the real estate graph above, the vertical blue bars show the average number of homes sold in Sable Chase each month, while the red field represents the average price trend. Like most neighborhoods in Tallahassee, Sable Chase home prices have been on a steady decline since the top of the market.

Sable Chase Home Values Dropping

In order to get a feel for the level of depreciation in Sable Chase, we look at the overall average price per square foot of arms-length existing home sales. We can see that the peak of the market enjoyed home values that exceeded $150 per square foot, but recently, prices have trended down to $125 per square foot. This seems consistent with many other areas which have seen similar drops.

Sable Chase Tallahassee Average Home Price Graph

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Recent Home Sales In Sable Chase

[click for list of recent Sable Chase Home Sales…]

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Tallahassee’s Piney Z Home Price Struggle

by Joe Manausa on October 29, 2009

Who is kicking butt in Tallahassee real estateEvery time I do a Tallahassee neighborhood report featuring Piney-Z, it seems like my comments and email go from positive to negative. I have even been accused of “bashing” the Piney Z Subdivision (as if I hold a grudge against a community???).

Certainly, that is not the case. Piney Z is a very desirable neighborhood located in Northeast Tallahassee, with home prices about 20% above the median for our county. I try to do regularly updates for many of the more active neighborhoods in Tallahassee, and Piney Z falls into this category.

Monthly Resales Stabilizing In Piney Z

This first real estate graph features existing home sales (resales) in Piney Z, with all of the non “arms length” sales removed. It is the clearest reflection of regular market activity in the past. When you look to the base of the graph, you will find that I am not using information from the Tallahassee MLS, rather I am reporting on all of the sales in the Piney Z neighborhood.

Piney Z Home Sales Graph In Tallahassee

What this graph is showing is that unit sales in Piney Z (vertical blue bars) have dropped roughly 70% since the peak of the market, but monthly sales seem to be stabilizing around 3 resales per month since July of 2008.

The bad news is that the average home price in Piney Z [click to continue…]

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As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates on real estate in Tallahassee Florida.

Joe Manausa is a real estate blogger, a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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What Are REALTOR® Reports Saying?

by Joe Manausa on October 27, 2009

Evil Wizard Forecasts Strong Tallahassee Real Estate MarketAnybody who knows me will tell you that I am an Army Football fan. I played for Army in the 1980s and I attend their annual football team reunion up at the academy each year.

Recently, I had a conversation with a friend who is also a fan, but is (I believe) a little biased when reporting how well a team with a 3-5 record is really doing.

Army played Rutgers this past Thursday night, but I did not watch the game. The next morning I read that we had lost the game, so I called my friend to see how the team had performed.

Our Conversation

Me: So did you watch the game?

Him: Yes! Man we had it right in our hands.

Me: Really?

Him: Yeah, we really looked strong. We took the opening drive and shoved it right down their throat. We ran 11 plays and scored a touchdown. We were dominating.

Me: Oh? What happened after that.

Him: Well, Rutgers ran off 17 straight points and then scored the final 10 points of the game to beat us 27-10.

Now I wouldn’t call his recollection of the game a true, un-biased account. I’m not so sure that Army “had it right in their hands.” I’ve learned over time that if I really want to know how well (or how not-so-well) the Army Team has done, I need to read a few different accounts from the game. Everybody has their own viewpoint, and all come will a bias.

Beware Of False Prophets In Real Estate

So why do I begin a real estate blog with a story about Army Football? Because home sales in Tallahassee are a lot like the Army Football Team. There is a lot of talk and great signs of promise, but so far the record indicates that a recovery has not been made!

Recently, a local publication took a report from the Florida Association of REALTORS® and wrote an article that I think painted a picture that is not truly accurate. Much like my friend reporting on Army Football, the writer spouted a few positive (facts) and then let the reader conclude that the Tallahassee housing market is on the upswing.

Unfortunately, REALTORS® typically only report about 1/2 to 1/3 of all the home sales in a market. I like to know what the REALTOR® reports are saying, but to get a true picture of the Tallahassee real estate market (or any real estate market for that matter), one has to dig deeper.

[click to discover "the rest of the story"…]

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